Uncommon
The Keys to the White House
U.S. election prediction system
The Keys to the White House
The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a historically based prediction system for attempting to predict the outcome of contemporary presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction. The system is a thirteen-point checklist that uses true-or-false statements: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the nominee of the incumbent party is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the nominee of the challenging party is predicted to win. Some of the items on the checklist involve qualitative judgment, and therefore the system relies heavily on the knowledge and analytical skill of whoever attempts to apply it. Using the keys, Lichtman has successfully predicted nine of the last eleven presidential elections held since 1984, often making his prediction...
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