Confounding

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In causal inference, confounding is a form of systematic error (or bias) that can distort estimates of causal effects in observational studies. A confounder is traditionally understood to be a variable that (1) independently predicts the outcome (or dependent variable), (2) is associated with the exposure (or independent variable), and (3) is not on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. Failure to control for a confounder results in a spurious association between exposure and outcome. Confounding is a causal concept rather than a purely statistical one, and therefore cannot be fully described by correlations or associations alone. The presence of confounders helps explain why correlation does not imply causation, and why careful study design and analytical methods (such as randomization, statistical adjustment, or causal diagrams) are required to distinguish causal effects from spurious associations. Several notation systems and formal frameworks, such as causal directed...

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