Delphi method

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The Delphi method, or Delphi technique ( DEL-fy; also known as Estimate–Talk–Estimate, or ETE), is a structured communication technique, or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets. Delphi can also be used to help reach expert consensus and develop professional guidelines. It is used for such purposes in many health-related fields, including clinical medicine, public health, and research. Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. In classic applications, experts answer questionnaires in two or more discrete rounds. However, modern Real-Time Delphi formats often utilize a continuous, roundless interaction. After each round, a facilitator, or change agent, provides...

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