Assassination market

Common card · No. 380574

An assassination market is a prediction market where any party can place a bet (using anonymous electronic money and pseudonymous remailers) on the date of death of a given individual. This incentivises assassination of the individual, as parties with advance knowledge of an assassination plot can profit by betting accurately on the date of the death. Because the payoff is for accurately picking the date rather than performing the assassination, it is substantially more difficult to assign criminal liability. Fears have been raised that popular prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, could serve the purposes of assassination markets.

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