Expected goals

Common card · No. 287021

Expected goals (xG) is a statistical metric in association football that assigns a probability that each shot will result in a goal. By summing these probabilities, xG is used to estimate how many goals a team or player would be expected to score given the chances created, independent of whether those chances were actually converted. xG values are produced by statistical or machine-learning models trained on historical shot data. Implementations differ in the data they use (for example, event data alone versus models that also incorporate positional or contextual information) and in which shot features are included; as a result, xG figures from different providers are not necessarily directly comparable. The same general approach has also been applied in ice hockey analytics, where "expected goals" models have been used as an alternative to goals for evaluating team and player performance in a low-scoring sport.

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