Tipping-point state

Common card · No. 443054

"Tipping-point state" is used to analyze the median state of a United States presidential election. In a list of states ordered by decreasing margin of victory for the winning candidate, the tipping point state is the first state where the combined electoral votes of all states up to that point in the list give the winning candidate a majority in the Electoral College. The idea of a "tipping-point state" can be interpreted as suggesting a counterfactual, on the assumption that outcomes in different states are strongly correlated: if the nationwide vote margin were shifted, but the order of states by vote margin were unchanged, the tipping-point state would be the state or states in which a change in the state winner would result in a change in the national winner. The term may also refer to the state that would give the second-place candidate a majority of the electoral vote when all states are arranged in order of their vote margins; this is typically, but not always, the same state as...

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