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Nuclear risk during the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)

Risk of nuclear conflict during the Russo-Ukrainian war

Nuclear risk during the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)

Common card · No. 242491

During the Russo-Ukrainian war, several senior Russian politicians, including President Vladimir Putin, former president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, have made a number of statements widely seen as nuclear blackmail. The possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons, and the risk of broader nuclear escalation, has been widely discussed by commentators and in the media. US scholars have called the invasion "the type of scenario most likely to trigger a nuclear war in Europe". On the other hand, British historian Lawrence Freedman argued the risk was low: "In Putin's mind, nuclear use is best kept for the most extreme contingencies when the state faces an existential threat." Some of the Russian government's "red lines" have been crossed without nuclear response. For example, the June 2025 Operation Spiderweb coordinated drone attack by Ukraine on Russia's strategic bomber force, which is in use for conventional attacks against Ukraine. In...

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