Economic impact of the 2026 Iran war
The 2026 Iran war, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to what the International Energy Agency has characterized as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market". The conflict has echoed the 1970s energy crisis through acute supply shortages, currency volatility, inflation and heightened risks of stagflation and recession. A 2026 market analysis by MCB Group placed the current disruption alongside four earlier oil-market shocks, noting that in each case the initial price spike proved larger than the eventual sustained increase. The 1990–91 Gulf War saw oil prices decline within about nine months of the initial spike, according to a survey of historical oil shocks. A similar pattern followed the 2003 Iraq War. The Congressional Research Service found that oil prices, after rising sharply at the outset of the conflict, returned to pre-crisis levels within a few months. Brent crude's rise to nearly $130 a barrel after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine...
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